Many Nevada races could be a toss-up, UNLV professor says

Published: Nov. 7, 2022 at 11:32 PM PST
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LAS VEGAS, Nev. (FOX5) - Many races in Nevada’s 2022 election could go “red” or blue” due to the razor-slim margins for polls, according to a UNLV professor.

Assistant Professor Kenneth Miller has been tracking the hotly-contested U.S. Senate race between incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Adam Laxalt, which has been the costliest race in Nevada history at $180 million to $190 million, he said. Across the Valley, many other Congressional races are also extremely competitive.

“Nationally, there’s a pretty decent chance for a ‘Red Wave.’ As far as a ‘Red Wave’ within the state of Nevada, that looks less likely. It just looks like all of these races are going to be very, very close. That does mean that every Republican could win just barely, or every Democrat could win just barely, of these competitive races,” Miller said.

“Polls can really only tell you about how close a race is within about four or five points. And that’s even assuming that the polls are being done very well, and they have very good samples. In a race where it’s probably going to come down to a couple of points, pre-election polls just aren’t going to tell you who the winner is going to be,” Miller said.

Just like 2020, due to increasing popularity of mail-in ballots, it could take days to a week to determine some of the most hotly-contested races, Miller said.

Bad weather may not put a damper on most attempts for in-person voting either.

“Most ballots are going to have been cast before Election Day. So it’s only a small segment of the electorate that’s actually going to go vote,” he said. According to the Nevada Secretary of State’s office, 158,000 people voted in-person on Election Day. 578,000 people voted early, and 672,000 voted absentee.