Replacement refs could affect betting lines - FOX5 Vegas - KVVU

Replacement refs could affect betting lines

While the NFL and its veteran referees are at a standstill in negotiations to bring them back to the field, replacement officials have stumbled their way through the first two weeks of the season.

They're intimidated, according to LVH sports book director Jay Kornegay. 

"It's very similar to a substitute teacher," Kornegay said. "You try to push their buttons and see how far you can push them before they break and tell you to go back to your seat."

So far in 2012, penalties are favoring home teams 55 percent of the time. Home teams also won 14 of 16 games last week.

Generally teams at home get a 3-point advantage in any point spread, but this officiating trend could change that to 3-and-a-half points, putting hundreds of thousands of dollars at risk for Kornegay.

"We have a little saying around here, every half point matters," he said. 

Kornegay thinks the sample size is too small so his lines aren't changing, yet.

"We're certainly monitoring it very closely to see if we do have to make any changes," he said.

"You usually have to give these types of trends a seven or eight week span to find out exactly where you are," said Jimmy Vaccaro of William Hill Sports Book. 

Vaccaro isn't changing his lines either for the time being, but if the public starts betting differently because of officiating, that's when he'll respond.

"I look for now what I look for 38 years ago, is there something that's there that people are pushing these games two or three points, or pushing totals four or five points?" Vaccaro said.

Las Vegas sports books are projecting 738 points will be scored in Week 3. That would be the highest point total for one week in NFL history.

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